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// Copyright (c) 2009-2010 Satoshi Nakamoto
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// Copyright (c) 2009-2016 The Bitcoin Core developers
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// Distributed under the MIT software license, see the accompanying
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// file COPYING or http://www.opensource.org/licenses/mit-license.php.
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#ifndef BITCOIN_POLICYESTIMATOR_H
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#define BITCOIN_POLICYESTIMATOR_H
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#include "amount.h"
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#include "uint256.h"
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#include "random.h"
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#include "sync.h"
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#include <map>
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#include <string>
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#include <vector>
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class CAutoFile;
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class CFeeRate;
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class CTxMemPoolEntry;
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class CTxMemPool;
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class TxConfirmStats;
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/** \class CBlockPolicyEstimator
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* The BlockPolicyEstimator is used for estimating the feerate needed
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* for a transaction to be included in a block within a certain number of
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* blocks.
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*
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* At a high level the algorithm works by grouping transactions into buckets
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* based on having similar feerates and then tracking how long it
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* takes transactions in the various buckets to be mined. It operates under
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* the assumption that in general transactions of higher feerate will be
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* included in blocks before transactions of lower feerate. So for
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* example if you wanted to know what feerate you should put on a transaction to
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* be included in a block within the next 5 blocks, you would start by looking
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* at the bucket with the highest feerate transactions and verifying that a
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* sufficiently high percentage of them were confirmed within 5 blocks and
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* then you would look at the next highest feerate bucket, and so on, stopping at
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* the last bucket to pass the test. The average feerate of transactions in this
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* bucket will give you an indication of the lowest feerate you can put on a
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* transaction and still have a sufficiently high chance of being confirmed
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* within your desired 5 blocks.
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*
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* Here is a brief description of the implementation:
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* When a transaction enters the mempool, we
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* track the height of the block chain at entry. Whenever a block comes in,
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* we count the number of transactions in each bucket and the total amount of feerate
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* paid in each bucket. Then we calculate how many blocks Y it took each
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* transaction to be mined and we track an array of counters in each bucket
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* for how long it to took transactions to get confirmed from 1 to a max of 25
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* and we increment all the counters from Y up to 25. This is because for any
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* number Z>=Y the transaction was successfully mined within Z blocks. We
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* want to save a history of this information, so at any time we have a
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* counter of the total number of transactions that happened in a given feerate
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* bucket and the total number that were confirmed in each number 1-25 blocks
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* or less for any bucket. We save this history by keeping an exponentially
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* decaying moving average of each one of these stats. Furthermore we also
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* keep track of the number unmined (in mempool) transactions in each bucket
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* and for how many blocks they have been outstanding and use that to increase
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* the number of transactions we've seen in that feerate bucket when calculating
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* an estimate for any number of confirmations below the number of blocks
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* they've been outstanding.
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*/
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/** Track confirm delays up to 25 blocks, can't estimate beyond that */
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static const unsigned int MAX_BLOCK_CONFIRMS = 25;
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/** Decay of .998 is a half-life of 346 blocks or about 2.4 days */
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static const double DEFAULT_DECAY = .998;
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/** Require greater than 95% of X feerate transactions to be confirmed within Y blocks for X to be big enough */
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static const double MIN_SUCCESS_PCT = .95;
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/** Require an avg of 1 tx in the combined feerate bucket per block to have stat significance */
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static const double SUFFICIENT_FEETXS = 1;
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// Minimum and Maximum values for tracking feerates
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// The MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE should just be set to the lowest reasonable feerate we
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// might ever want to track. Historically this has been 1000 since it was
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// inheriting DEFAULT_MIN_RELAY_TX_FEE and changing it is disruptive as it
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// invalidates old estimates files. So leave it at 1000 unless it becomes
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// necessary to lower it, and then lower it substantially.
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static constexpr double MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1000;
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static const double MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE = 1e7;
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static const double INF_FEERATE = MAX_MONEY;
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// We have to lump transactions into buckets based on feerate, but we want to be able
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// to give accurate estimates over a large range of potential feerates
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// Therefore it makes sense to exponentially space the buckets
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/** Spacing of FeeRate buckets */
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static const double FEE_SPACING = 1.1;
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/**
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* We want to be able to estimate feerates that are needed on tx's to be included in
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* a certain number of blocks. Every time a block is added to the best chain, this class records
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* stats on the transactions included in that block
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*/
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class CBlockPolicyEstimator
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{
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public:
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/** Create new BlockPolicyEstimator and initialize stats tracking classes with default values */
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CBlockPolicyEstimator();
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~CBlockPolicyEstimator();
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/** Process all the transactions that have been included in a block */
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void processBlock(unsigned int nBlockHeight,
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std::vector<const CTxMemPoolEntry*>& entries);
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/** Process a transaction accepted to the mempool*/
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void processTransaction(const CTxMemPoolEntry& entry, bool validFeeEstimate);
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/** Remove a transaction from the mempool tracking stats*/
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bool removeTx(uint256 hash);
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/** Return a feerate estimate */
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CFeeRate estimateFee(int confTarget) const;
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/** Estimate feerate needed to get be included in a block within
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* confTarget blocks. If no answer can be given at confTarget, return an
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* estimate at the lowest target where one can be given.
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*/
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CFeeRate estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, int *answerFoundAtTarget, const CTxMemPool& pool) const;
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/** Write estimation data to a file */
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bool Write(CAutoFile& fileout) const;
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/** Read estimation data from a file */
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bool Read(CAutoFile& filein);
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private:
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CFeeRate minTrackedFee; //!< Passed to constructor to avoid dependency on main
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unsigned int nBestSeenHeight;
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struct TxStatsInfo
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{
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unsigned int blockHeight;
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unsigned int bucketIndex;
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TxStatsInfo() : blockHeight(0), bucketIndex(0) {}
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};
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// map of txids to information about that transaction
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std::map<uint256, TxStatsInfo> mapMemPoolTxs;
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/** Classes to track historical data on transaction confirmations */
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TxConfirmStats* feeStats;
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unsigned int trackedTxs;
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unsigned int untrackedTxs;
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mutable CCriticalSection cs_feeEstimator;
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/** Process a transaction confirmed in a block*/
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bool processBlockTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, const CTxMemPoolEntry* entry);
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};
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class FeeFilterRounder
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{
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public:
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/** Create new FeeFilterRounder */
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FeeFilterRounder(const CFeeRate& minIncrementalFee);
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/** Quantize a minimum fee for privacy purpose before broadcast **/
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CAmount round(CAmount currentMinFee);
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private:
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std::set<double> feeset;
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FastRandomContext insecure_rand;
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};
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#endif /*BITCOIN_POLICYESTIMATOR_H */
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